Bay of Bengal depression may become Andhra's third cyclone in 20 days

TL;DR in 30 sec

• A depression has formed in the Bay of Bengal, about 1,040 km south-southeast of Visakhapatnam, according to the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) bulletin of 5:30 am on 15 November, as reported by IANS.
• IMD expects it to become a cyclonic storm on 16 November and a severe cyclonic storm on 17 November, IANS and ETV Bharat reported.
• Andhra Pradesh’s disaster management authority says the storm is likely to approach the north Andhra coast, IANS reported.
• It would be the third cyclonic storm from the Bay of Bengal to cross the Andhra Pradesh coast in 20 days, according to IANS.

What happened

On the morning of 14 November, IMD said the low-pressure area over the southeast Bay of Bengal had become a “well-marked” low, DT Next reported, citing PTI. By 5:30 am on 15 November it had turned into a depression, according to the IMD bulletin as reported by IANS and Pragativadi.

At that hour, the depression lay about 700 km west-southwest of Port Blair and 860 km east-southeast of Chennai. It was also 1,040 km south-southeast of Visakhapatnam and 1,160 km south-southeast of Gopalpur in Odisha, IANS and Pragativadi reported.

IMD expects it to move north-northwest and gain strength in stages, according to IANS and ETV Bharat:

• a cyclonic storm over the south and west-central Bay of Bengal on 16 November, with winds of 75 to 85 km/h gusting to 95 km/h, ETV Bharat reported;
• a severe cyclonic storm over the west-central Bay of Bengal on 17 November, IANS reported.

Prakhar Jain, managing director of the Andhra Pradesh State Disaster Management Authority (APSDMA), said the landfall point was not yet fixed because the system was following an “unusual track”, The Hans India reported. He said a clearer picture is expected within 24 hours, according to the same report.

Why it matters for India 🇮🇳

The APSDMA said north Andhra may get heavy rain and strong winds on Thursday and Friday, 19 and 20 November, IANS reported. IMD has issued an orange alert for vulnerable areas, The Hans India reported.

The Hans India listed Parvathipuram Manyam, Alluri Sitarama Raju, Kakinada, Dr BR Ambedkar Konaseema, East Godavari, West Godavari, Eluru and Yanam among the places expecting heavy to extremely heavy rain on 18 and 19 November.

An earlier Hans India report, on 14 November, put Srikakulam, Vizianagaram, Parvathipuram Manyam and Alluri under a yellow alert for 18 November, and added Visakhapatnam and Anakapalli to the districts under an orange alert for 19 November.

Fishermen at sea have been told to return to the coast by 15 November and to stay ashore while the storm lasts, ETV Bharat and News On AIR reported. IMD also expects heavy rain over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands on 16 November, according to News On AIR.

Coastal administrations in Odisha and Andhra Pradesh have started recalling fishing boats, checking cyclone shelters and putting disaster response teams on alert, Pragativadi reported.

Background

The new storm arrives while coastal Andhra Pradesh is still recovering from two earlier cyclones, IANS reported. IMD lists Arnab as a very severe cyclonic storm that lasted from 23 to 30 October, according to the IMD website. Murasu, a severe cyclonic storm, crossed the Andhra Pradesh coast in early November, IANS and ETV Bharat reported.

The two storms together killed 15 people, according to IANS. IANS put the estimated losses from Arnab at Rs 4,600 crore. For Murasu, it reported preliminary losses of about Rs 1,919.59 crore, with crops damaged on 1,43,122 hectares and 1,86,063 farmers affected.

IANS and ETV Bharat differ on where and when the two storms crossed the coast. IANS said Arnab struck near Narsapuram on 27 October. ETV Bharat said it made landfall near Yanam on 28 October. For Murasu, IANS said it crossed between Nellore and Narasapur on 3 November, while ETV Bharat said it struck near Ongole on 2 November.

Different perspectives

The reports differ slightly on timing. IANS and ETV Bharat, reporting IMD’s bulletin, said the system is expected to become a severe cyclonic storm on 17 November. Prakhar Jain’s timeline, as reported by The Hans India, has it reaching that strength on Wednesday, 18 November.

ETV Bharat also reported that forecast models show the system could become a very severe cyclonic storm early on 19 November, with winds of 120 to 130 km/h gusting to 145 km/h. That outlook came from forecast models, not from an IMD bulletin, ETV Bharat said.

None of the sources carried a contrary view on the warnings themselves.

Open questions 🤔

• Where and when will the storm cross the coast?
• Will it grow stronger than a severe cyclonic storm before it reaches land?
• Will it be named Akvan, as some reports say?

What to watch next

IMD expects the depression to become a cyclonic storm on 16 November and a severe cyclonic storm on 17 November, IANS reported. The APSDMA has warned of heavy rain and strong winds in north Andhra on 19 and 20 November, according to IANS.